Wow what a difference a month makes in this stock market.
The three month S&P 500 chart below perfectly summarizes what happened:
After a September to forget, October came back strong with a 6% vengeance, reaching all time highs in a matter of weeks. 😤
The market always seems to climb a mountain of worries, and now it just shows up as another notch in the five year chart:
This month was the 2nd highest ever in regards to portfolio value gain, just after the 3rd worst monthly decline last month.
So the big swings continue, but I have a pretty high risk tolerance for these changes. However, does the market ever just trade flat anymore?
Many of the portfolio names had a rebound month after recent declines and it certainly starts to compound and add up now.
It’s crazy that it’s now possible to save more with one good month in the markets, verses an entire year right out of university. Of course, this is the snowball effect of investing that comes from years of saving. However being unrealized-paper gains, volatility is expected.
I still feel we are in a market bubble though, as some valuations are running wild. Whether it be equities, crypto, or real estate.
“Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.” ~ Warren Buffett
There definitely seems to be an euphoric tone right now in the markets. Exhibit A:
Since going vertical, Tesla recently crossed the 1 Trillion market cap, and then in the next couple of days casually adding another 100 billion as more money rushes in.
And with the general misunderstanding of market cap in the general public, or perhaps people taking advantage of that, I’m almost certain an announcement of another stock split would send it soaring more. Same with raising capital from share dilutions, as last time it actually rose on the news.
Maybe it’s a result of so many people buying tsla calls that end up close to expiring in the money and exercising so banks have to buy a bunch of shares to cover, which only increases share price more… making more calls go in the money, and the cycle repeats. Sounds kind of like a gamma squeeze to me, with a little mix of FOMO in there.
Also, the market caps on the two most popular high flying dog crypto internet tokens hit around 40 Billion each this month. It’s crazy to think that factoring in all the other cryptos there’s over 2.6 Trillion in USD sitting there.
I’ve heard it’s the future from people and everything, and kind of get the idea of btc or eth as a currency hedge, but there seems to be no limit or competitive advantage for anything if there’s just a new <insert celebrity or animal name> internet coin every week.
Is everyone really going to have digital wallets with dozens of types of crypto in them that are all used in the economy? All priced with the volatile conversion rates based on the latest musk tweet or government ban.
Maybe I’m just too old at 31 to see the value, benefit, or extensive use of resources in this. Or maybe it’s just the fact of missing out on all those gainz over the years…
People are definitely making a killing on both ends, and I’m definitely rooting for the little guy while hoping they make it big and don’t lose anything. But the fees, transactions, and storage money seem to really be attracting the eyes of Wall Street for sure.
Not to mention the IRS and all the scams that are popping up from this.
I assume this is what some people think of when investing in stocks, (honestly it’s all kind of a casino) so no judgement here – make that money with whatever strategy works. But be careful out there.
Have been thinking a lot about all of this after looking at the portfolio stock gains for the month, and realizing how everything just looks so inflated right now.
This can’t be sustainable can it? But what justifies the valuation of anything I suppose… all in the eye of the beholder?!
Whew, end of bubble rant….
Below is the dividend income received during October: (Values are in USD)
ADP – 14.88
AQN – 29.00
ECL – 7.20
ITW – 18.30
JJSF – 12.66
MKC – 13.60
O – 10.62
SYK – 3.15
TMO – 2.86
WDFC* – 9.61
XEL – 24.25
YORW – 9.00
October Dividend Totals: $155.13
Total Payouts: 12 (positions marked “*” are held in an IRA)
Month Increase YoY: -29.5%
The dividend total was lower YoY due to a slight reorg a few months back on a couple positions for hopefully better growth prospects in the future.
The quarterly total for these months are generally lower so any updates can exaggerate changes percentage wise. Looking to break an all time total divvy record in December.
Pretty much just contribute every month nowadays, since I don’t know what else to do other than hoard cash during rising inflation.
If only the Fed would actually have interest rates in this environment… could help cool off a lot of different types of markets.
Anyway, if you can’t beat ‘em, join ‘em I guess…
Started buying to begin the month, but the market kept rising so fast, I wasn’t able to deploy as much as planned:
Bought one share of MSFT (in the 280s which I thought was high 🤪).
A couple shares of ABT.
And seven shares of KLAC.
There was also a pretty substantial top holding swap mentioned in the next section below.
I feel the portfolio is in a good place right now, even with a slightly higher cash balance than usual.
Portfolio Top 13 Holdings:
- Target Corp (TGT)
- American Wtr Wks Co Inc (AWK)
- Microsoft Corp (MSFT)
- Church & Dwight Co Inc (CHD)
- Waste Management Inc Del (WM)
- Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)
- Lowe’s Companies Inc (LOW)
- Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO)
- Visa Inc (V)
- PepsiCo Inc (PEP)
- General Mills (GIS)
- Accenture Plc (ACN)
- Broadcom Inc (AVGO)
No change in the top two, but the mega cap Microsoft, that has recently been trading like a penny stock, may catch up faster than expected.
WM jumped up a spot after a run-up to earnings, to now crack the top five.
A bunch of shifting in the bottom names, but the main one to note is Visa.
This is a new name to the portfolio. After the PayPal rumors came out about looking at buying PINS, it brought back memories of T buying overpriced directTV back in the day. So I jumped ship pretty fast, and was on the lookout to bring in another new quality name into the port.
After some research, Visa fit the bill especially since it basically replaces allocation in the same sector.
Think I may have gotten lucky with the timing of going all in on V last Thursday with the pypl funds, as under $210 seemed like a good value for V. Plus, a dividend from this holding should now be received in December.
If visa keeps dropping this year, I’ll add another few shares.
Excited to see how these names hold up to finish out 2021.
Well, if you made it this far in the post congrats and thanks for reading, here is some emoji money as tribute which is about as real as anything these days: 💵💵✨
Have a great month – the journey to financial freedom continues.
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